Sunday, November 22, 2009
November Expiration Day
- 3 positions (MHP, TZA, OCR) closed in-the-money. The calls were exercised and the stock was sold. OCR was established this month, and TZA and MHP was a holdover from the last few expirations. The annualized gain/loss results (after commissions) were:
McGraw-Hill (MHP) => 29.42% (Held Since 8/21/2009)
Direxion 3x Small Cap Bear => 18.7% (Held Since 9/14/2009)
Omnicare (OCR) => 36.51% (Held Since 9/29/2009)
- 4 positions in the portfolio (UNG, AMAT, FLR, JACK) ended out-of-the-money. As is the norm with UNG, it yet again ended OTM.
United States Natural Gas (UNG) - $9.01
100 Shares with Current Cost Basis of $11.185
I will continue to sell calls against all of my positions in UNG, while I wait for the price of natural gas to rebound. I do realize that this will take quite a while, but I consider this position to be a longer-term covered call position.
Applied Materials (AMAT) - $12.28
100 Shares with Current Cost Basis of $12.57
This position is one which I plan to hold for quite a well as well. The stock was pushed down as part of the sector downgrade which the semiconductor sector received this week. I believe the stock is still a good holding on a fundamental basis as it recently crushed earnings. I will continue to hold the position and sell a new call.
Fluor (FLR) - $44.32
100 Shares with Current Cost Basis of $45.37
After reporting lackluster earnings, FLR dropped from about $48 to under $45. Unfortunately, with the market declining in recent days, FLR has not been able to regain any of its lossed, even though it has been bordering on oversold territory for a few days. I will continue to hold the position and sell a new call.
Jack In The Box (JACK) - $18.55
100 Shares with Current Cost Basis of $19.10
Similar to Fluor, Jack In The Box recently reported earnings, and was obliterated from above $20 to down to $18 due to a dissapointing outlook, even though current quarter earnings beat estimates. I believe the company is still in the midst of moving from a non-franchise to franchise model, and thus will continue to be a turnaround play in the CCIP. I will be selling a new call on the position.
The positions in the portfolio which did not have October expirations include:
United States Natural Gas (UNG)(300 Shares) - December $9 Covered Call, January $13 Covered Call, 1 position uncovered
Intrepid Potash (IPI)(100 Shares) - December $27 Covered Call
MEMC Electronics (WFR) (100 Shares) - Uncovered
Intel (INTC) (100 Shares) - December $19 Covered Call
Applied Materials - 1 December $13 CSP
Gamestop (GME) (100 Shares) - December $24 Covered Call
Verizon (VZ) (100 Shares) - April $31 Covered Call
New York Community Bancorp (NYB) (100 Shares) - April $12 Covered Call
Initial Transaction - United States Natural Gas (UNG) (11/19/2009)
11/19/2009 -- Bought 100 UNG @ 8.83
11/19/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG December $9 Call @ 0.38
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $845.00
Commissions (Included In Cost): $5
Downside Coverage (from current price of $8.83): 4.3%
Possible Max Upside: 5.56%
Annualized Max Upside: 67.59%
Update Transaction - United States Natural Gas (UNG) (11/18/2009)
7/23/2009 -- Bought 100 UNG @ 13.14
7/23/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG July $13 Call @ 0.88
8/22/2009 -- Call Expired
8/30/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG October $14 @ 0.25
9/2/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 UNG October $14 @ 0.18
9/2/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG January $12 @ 0.68
9/10/2009 - Bought To Close 1 UNG January $12 @ 0.9
9/10/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG January $13 @ 1.29
11/6/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 UNG December $9 Put @ 0.41
11/18/2009 -- Sold To Close 1 UNG December $9 Put @ 0.5025
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $1353.00
Current Cost Average: $12.235
Downside Coverage: None
Possible Max Upside: 6.24%
Annualized Max Upside: 12.8%
Update Transaction - United States Natural Gas (UNG) (11/18/2009)
7/2/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG August $13 Put @ 1.15
8/21/2009 -- Stock Purchase @ $13
8/24/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG October $13 Call @ 0.60
9/2/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 UNG October $8 Put @ .4275
10/16/2009 -- Option Expiration
10/20/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG November $12 Call @ .45
11/6/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 UNG December $9 Put @ 0.41
11/18/2009 -- Sold To Close 1 UNG December $9 Put @ 0.5025
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Purchase Price: $1190.00
Current Cost Average: $11.185
Commissions (Included In Cost): $35
Possible Max Upside: 6.85%
Annualized Max Upside: 17.60%
Initial Transaction - New York Community Bancorp (NYB) (11/16/2009)
11/16/2009 -- Bought 100 NYB @ 11.48
11/16/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 NYB April $12 Call @ 0.55
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $1093.00
Commissions (Included In Cost): $5
Downside Coverage (from current price of $11.48): 4.8%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At First Ex-Div. Date (2/4/2010): 38.78%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Expiration (4/17/2010): 27.90%
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Initial Transaction - Verizon (VZ) (11/16/2009)
11/16/2009 -- Bought 100 VZ @ 30.37
11/16/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 VZ April $31 Call @ 1.08
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $2930.00
Commissions (Included In Cost): $5
Downside Coverage (from current price of $30.37): 3.6%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At First Ex-Div. Date (1/7/2010): 39.53%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Second Ex-Div. Date (4/7/2010): 19.04%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Expiration (4/17/2010): 21.64%
Initial Transaction - Gamestop (GME) (11/16/2009)
11/16/2009 -- Bought 100 GME @ 24.35
11/16/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 GME December $24 Call @ 1.42
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $2293.00
Commissions (Included In Cost): $5
Downside Coverage (from current price of $24.35): 5.8%
Possible Max Upside: 4.25%
Annualized Max Upside: 47.01%
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Closing Transaction - Microchip Technologies (MCHP) (11/13/2009)
10/20/2009 -- Bought 100 MCHP @ 26.14
10/20/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 MCHP November $25 Call @ 1.54
11/13/2009 -- Sold 100 MCHP @ 24.9543
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 2460.00
Final Profit: 1.44%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Ex-Div Date: 21.90%
Closing Transaction - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) (11/13/2009)
10/29/2009 -- Bought 200 BMY @ 22.2025
10/29/2009 -- Sold To Open 2 BMY November $22 Call @ 0.5625
11/13/2009 -- Bought To Close/Sold 200 BMY @ 21.9425
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $4328.00
Final Profit: 1.40%
Annualized Max Upside: 22.18%
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Update Transaction - Intrepid Potash (IPI)
7/30/2009 -- Bought 100 IPI @ 26.70
7/30/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 IPI $27 August Call @ 1.54
7/30/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 IPI $22 August Put @ 0.45
8/21/2009 -- Call Expired
8/24/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 IPI $28 September Call @ 0.7
8/26/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 IPI $21 September Put @ 0.25
8/31/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 IPI $28 September Call @ 0.10
8/31/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 IPI $27 October Call @ 0.50
10/1/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 IPI $27 October Call @ 0.10
10/8/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 IPI $27 November Call @ 0.70
11/12/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 IPI $27 November Call @ 0.71
11/12/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 IPI $27 December Call @ 1.41
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $2561.00
Current Cost Average: $23.46
Previous Max Upside: 11.29%
New Possible Max Upside: 14.07%
Previous Annualized Max Upside:36.14%
Annualized Max Upside: 36.17%
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Initial Transaction - Applied Materials (AMAT)
11/11/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 AMAT December $13 Put @ 0.55
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: N/A
Potential Gain If Called At Expiration: 4.23%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Expiration: 40.64%
Friday, November 6, 2009
Update Transaction - United States Natural Gas (UNG)(3)
6/10/2009 -- Bought 100 UNG @ 14.50
6/10/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG July $15 Call @ 0.97
7/6/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 UNG July $15 Call @ 0.15
7/17/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG August $15 Call @ 0.45
8/22/2009 -- Call Expired
8/28/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 UNG October $10 Put @ 0.65
9/1/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG January $14 Call @ 0.50
9/2/2009 -- Sold To Close 1 UNG October $10 Put @ 0.95
11/6/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 UNG January $14 Call @ 0.18
11/6/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 UNG December $9 Put @ 0.41
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $1353.00
Possible Max Upside: N/A
Annualized Max Upside: N/A
Update Transaction - United States Natural Gas (UNG) (2)
7/23/2009 -- Bought 100 UNG @ 13.14
7/23/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG July $13 Call @ 0.88
8/22/2009 -- Call Expired
8/30/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG October $14 @ 0.25
9/2/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 UNG October $14 @ 0.18
9/2/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG January $12 @ 0.68
9/10/2009 - Bought To Close 1 UNG January $12 @ 0.9
9/10/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG January $13 @ 1.29
11/6/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 UNG December $9 Put @ 0.41
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $1353.00
Downside Coverage: Covered below $9
Possible Max Upside: 2.14%
Annualized Max Upside: 4.39%
Update Transaction - United States Natural Gas (UNG)
7/2/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG August $13 Put @ 1.15
8/21/2009 -- Stock Purchase @ $13
8/24/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG October $13 Call @ 0.60
9/2/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 UNG October $8 Put @ .4275
10/16/2009 -- Option Expiration
10/20/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 UNG November $12 Call @ .45
11/6/2009 -- Bought To Open 1 UNG December $9 Put @ 0.41
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Purchase Price: $1190.00
Possible Max Upside: 2.63%
Annualized Max Upside: 6.75%
Dividend - Intel (INTC) (11/4/2009)
10/21/2009 -- Bought 100 INTC @ 19.795
10/21/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 INTC December $19 Call @ 1.14
11/4/2009 -- Dividend @ 0.14
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: $1865.50
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Expiration (12/19/2009): 14.43%
Downside Protection: 6.5%
October 2009 Results
I have also started to track other metrics recently to judge the performance of the CCIP. One of these metrics is to understand the overall “profit yield” in the portfolio. The “profit yield” normalizes the potential returns of each position on an annualized basis to determine an overall portfolio potential annualized return. My goal is to keep this number above 25%, and it currently stands at 28.65%. I will report this number with each monthly update from now on.
The 2009 Since Inception results are as follows:
1. Since Inception Results
CCIP Absolute Return (March 7 through October 31, 2009) = 56.77%
Benchmark S&P 500 (SPY) Absolute Return (March 7 through October 31, 2009) = 48.11%
The CCIP has outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark by a total of 8.66%
November 2009 Next Steps
The month of November is bound to be full of surprises, as it seems that the rally is losing steam. Lately, I have also heard a lot of talk about a head and shoulders pattern beginning to form, which could mean a large drop in the market in the near future. As a result of this uncertainty, I have started moving some of my money into more stable companies, which have strong dividends and are less dependent on an improving economy. As I noted above, my current strategy aims for a portfolio annualized return of 25%, however this is adjusted downwards from where it stood at the beginning of the month, which was 35%.
As of right now, my current strategies for the CCIP include:
- Near-month covered calls
- Long-term covered calls
- Ex-dividend Strategy
- Cash-Secured Put Strategy
- Put Spread Strategy
The strategy for establishing covered calls positions after November expiration will depend on what positions close ITM at expiration. I will establish new positions based upon my annualized return asset allocation strategy in order to hit an overall portfolio return of 25%.
As always, please post any thoughts or questions you have regarding the CCIP and the posts on the blog.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Question And Answer
Initial Transaction - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) (10/29/2009)
10/29/2009 -- Bought 200 BMY @ 22.2025
10/29/2009 -- Sold To Open 2 BMY November $22 Call @ 0.5625
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Stock Purchase Cost: $4328.00
Downside Coverage (from current price of $22.2025): 2.5%
Possible Max Upside: 1.52%
Annualized Max Upside: 24.17%
Closing Transaction - ConocoPhillips (COP) (10/28/2009)
8/13/2009 -- Bought 100 COP @ 43.93
8/13/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 COP January $39 Call @ 6.49
10/28/2009 -- Sold 100 COP @ 38.9539
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 3759.00
Actual Gain: 4.04%
Annualized Gain: 19.42%
Update Transaction - MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR) (10/27/2009)
10/21/2009 -- Bought 100 WFR @ 15.76
10/21/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 WFR November $16 Call @ 0.81
10/23/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 WFR November $16 Call @ 0.25
10/23/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 WFR November $15 Call @ 0.40
10/27/2009 -- Bought To Close 1 WFR November $15 Call @ 0.20
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 1495.00
Potential Gain If Called At Expiration: N/A
PotentialAnnualized Gain If Called At Expiration: N/A
Initial Transaction - Intel (INTC) (10/21/2009)
10/21/2009 -- Bought 100 INTC @ 19.795
10/21/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 INTC December $19 Call @ 1.14
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: $1755.00
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Ex-Div. Date (11/4/2009): 40.48%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Expiration (11/21/2009): 15.75%
Downside Protection: 5.8%
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Initial Transaction - MEMC Electronics Materials (WFR) (10/21/2009)
10/21/2009 -- Bought 100 WFR @ 15.76
10/21/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 WFR November $16 Call @ .81
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 1495.00
Potential Gain If Called At Expiration: 6.25%
PotentialAnnualized Gain If Called At Expiration: 73.59%
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Initial Transaction - Microchip Technology (MCHP) (10/20/2009)
10/20/2009 -- Bought 100 MCHP @ 26.14
10/20/2009 -- Sold To Open 1 MCHP November $25 Call @ 1.54
The important purchase metrics are below for insight into possible profit and loss (these all include commissions):
Cost Basis: 2460.00
Potential Gain If Called At Ex-Div Date: 1.4%
Potential Annualized Gain If Called At Ex-Div Date: 22.22%
Potential Gain If Called At Expiration: 3.00%
PotentialAnnualized Gain If Called At Expiration: 34.27%